Am I getting left behind financially by not buying a home?

Assumptions and sources

The model follows both sides month by month over a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Both start with the same cash and spend the same each month; whoever spends less invests the gap in a broad index fund. Net worth counts selling costs and tax, as if each sold up at that point. You stay 10 years and put 20% down.

United States. Starting values: a $369,000 home and $1,950 a month in rent, the typical home value and asking rent (Zillow, Aug 2026),¹ and a 7.0% 30-year fixed rate (Freddie Mac, 2026-09-24).¹³ Growth since 2000: home values 4.2% a year, rent 3.5% (consumer price index for rent),¹⁴ stocks 8.0% (S&P 500 with dividends, 2000–2025).¹⁵ Over the last 10 years stocks returned 14.7% a year; forecasters expect less for the next decade, 4.2–6.2% a year for US stocks in Vanguard’s outlook.¹⁶ Costs: property tax 0.9% of the home’s value a year (median tax paid ÷ median value),¹⁷ insurance 0.5% (the average homeowners premium, 2023),¹⁸ maintenance 1%, buying costs 2.5%, selling costs 6.5%, and mortgage insurance of 0.5% of the loan a year below 20% down.¹⁰ Taxes: 15% on price gains when you sell, the most that most people pay on long-term gains,⁸ and 15% on dividends (1.9% a year) as they’re paid. Home-sale gains are tax-free up to $250,000.⁷ We leave out the mortgage-interest deduction, which only helps if your itemised deductions beat the $16,100 standard deduction.⁶ Money in a 401(k) or IRA grows untaxed until you withdraw it, which would help the renter. Each metro uses its own Zillow values, its own consumer price index for rent and its state’s average insurance premium.

Denmark. Starting values: an 80 m² owner-occupied flat. Prices are realised sale prices per m², Q2 2026: Copenhagen DKK 75,100, Aarhus DKK 43,400, Odense DKK 26,000, Aalborg DKK 21,400.² Rents are asking rents per m² a year from listings, 30 Sep 2026: Copenhagen DKK 2,724, Aarhus DKK 1,968, Odense DKK 1,452, Aalborg DKK 1,104.¹⁹ No official source publishes free-market rents, and regulated leases in older buildings are often far cheaper. Mortgage: 4.8% including bidrag, the mortgage bank’s fee: the average rate on new fixed-rate loans to households, 2026-08.²⁰ Growth since 2000: flat prices per m² in each city,² rent 2.2% a year (consumer price index for actual rents),²¹ stocks 6.7% (MSCI World with net dividends, in DKK).²² Costs: property tax as a new owner pays it since the 2024 reform, ejendomsværdiskat of 5.1‰ on 80% of the valuation²³ plus the municipality’s grundskyld (Copenhagen 5.1‰, Aarhus 6‰, Odense 5.7‰, Aalborg 7.4‰)²⁴ on 80% of the land value, taking land as a quarter of a flat’s value. Association fees, including building insurance, DKK 320 per m² a year (Boligøkonomisk Videncenter’s 2015 average carried forward with inflation). Maintenance inside the flat 0.5% a year. Buying costs 3%, mostly registration fees on the deed and the mortgage deed.²⁵ Selling costs 2.5%, about DKK 150,000 for the Copenhagen flat; an estate agent and the other costs of a sale typically come to up to about DKK 100,000,²⁶ so this errs high for pricier flats, which slightly favours renting. Taxes: interest and bidrag are deductible at about 33% on the first DKK 50,000 a year and 25% above, for a single person (the latest published figures, for 2024);⁴ investment gains are taxed as share income, 27% up to DKK 79,400 a year and 42% above (2026).⁵ We count the whole portfolio as sold in one year, which puts most of a large gain in the 42% bracket. Accumulating funds are taxed every year on unrealised gains instead: pick “Every year” in the calculator. Gains on selling your own home are tax-free.³